The Battle of the Nile River: Ethiopia Defies the Odds

Ethiopia, a cradle of humanity with Africa’s second-most populous nation has a long and rich history. It starts with evidence of early human settlement dating back millions of years. The history evolves into major ancient kingdoms like the Axumite Empire. This empire became a powerful trading state and converted to Christianity in the 4th century CE. The country resisted European colonization. Notably, it defeated Italy at the Battle of Adwa in 1896. Later, it played a significant role in modern African history by hosting the headquarters for the Organization of African Unity.

The Nile river is the longest flowing water body on the planet. It has been at the center of a geopolitical scuffle for more than a decade. The kerfuffle involves Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. The main reason is the construction of the biggest hydropower project in Africa. The project, which costs $5bn, is known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The construction of this colossal dam started in 2011, when then Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi laid the cornerstone. It was seen as an Ethiopian dam for Ethiopia’s future. In the ensuing years, the project was plagued by delays and political uncertainty. The construction of the dam is to solve the electricity or power-supply crisis in Ethiopia. The dam’s reservoir will also generate a steady water supply for irrigation while curtailing floods and droughts.

Ethiopia’s downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan raised grave concerns and apprehension about the dam. In particular, Egypt claims the dam will affect its water supply. The country gets about 90% of its water resources from the Nile river. This has led the Egyptian government to restructure its agriculture sector. It has curtailed the land for rice cultivation, which is water-intensive. In an effort to dissuade Ethiopia from constructing the dam, the Egyptian government took significant lobbying actions. They targeted international institutions, like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, urging them not to finance the project.

This cunning diplomatic maneuver by Egypt, bolstered and strengthened Ethiopia’s resolve to move ahead with the project. It is also worth noting that the dam was constructed with funding from the Ethiopian government, private citizens and individuals. Ethiopians donated massively towards the construction of the dam. It is no surprise the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed views the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a significant accomplishment. He called it the “greatest achievement of the black race.” It is indeed a historic achievement.

The GERD is a game-changer and it is certain to drive Ethiopia’s economic transformation. It is also going to improve the economic activity of the region. Instead of seeing the GERD as an existential threat, Ethiopia’s downstream neighbors should consider the bigger picture. They should focus on the mutual economic benefits. In other words, the prospect of industrialization, modernization and prosperity is a win for the entire region economically and politically. Reliable and stable electricity will drive industry, infrastructure, and transportation.

For Ethiopia, the success of the GERD presents new challenges and opportunities. It has defied the odds as it has always done in its cherished history. It must now decide to leverage the dam for a genuine regional and continental integration.